Tourism, Globalization and Development Responsible Tourism Planning
Indeed, there have been some interesting changes since the s in the direction of tourist flows worldwide, with an especially noticeable steady increase of arrivals of international tourists in Asia and the Pacific which in received At the same time, Europe continues to maintain a far from negligible market share of The same relative downward trend has occurred in the Americas, which have gone from a market share of The year has been a turning point in the downward trend of the main global data on tourism in recent years Table 1.
Powered by improving economic conditions worldwide, international tourism has recovered faster than expected from the effects of the world financial crisis and economic downturn of late and International tourist arrivals increased by 6.
In absolute terms, the number of arrivals reached million, surpassing by 58 million the figure and by 22 million the pre-crisis peak of million. In addition, although all regions recorded growth in international arrivals, the main drivers of the growth continued to be the emerging economies. This two-speed recovery, slower in the advanced 5 per and faster in the emerging 8 per economies, is a reflection of the global economic situation, and will dominate and the foreseeable future.
The sub-regional results also clearly reflect the different speeds of recovery. Some subregions, such as North and Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, were unaffected by the global crisis, and showed continued growth throughout and Among the subregions that had been affected by the crisis in , the arrivals in Northeast and South Asia, North and South America, and Western Europe fully offset the earlier losses, reaching levels equal to or even higher than the pre-crisis situation.
The Caribbean and Central America, however, have barely recovered their levels, and the growth in Central and Eastern Europe, and Southern Europe and the Mediterranean has been insufficient to offset the tourist flow loss in , and Northern Europe presented no positive figures in Asia was the first region to recover, and was that with strongest growth 13 per in International tourist arrivals in Asia reached a new record of million, compared to million in Africa 6 per , 49 million arrivals , the only region with positive figures in , continued to grow in , benefiting from the increased economic dynamism and events such as the World Cup in South Africa.
The Middle East returned to growth with double-digit results 14 per , 60 million arrivals , with an increase of 10 per or more in almost all of its destinations. Recovery in Europe 3 per , million arrivals was slower than in other regions. Although the sector has gained momentum in the second half of the year, with performances above the regional average in some countries, it has not been enough to revert the overall losses of The Americas with a growth of 8 per , million arrivals recovered from the fall of that had been caused by the economic difficulties of North America and the impact of the outbreak of influenza-A H1N1.
The return of the U. The greatest growth corresponded to South America 10 per Together with international tourist arrivals, the other variable that is commonly used as a measure of the evolution of world tourism is the volume of receipts Table 2. During , the growth of international tourism receipts lagged somewhat behind that of arrivals, as is usual during periods of recovery. Among the main markets in terms of external tourism expenditures, it has been the emerging economies which have been driving growth: China 17 per , the Russian Federation 26 per , Saudi Arabia 28 per , and Brazil 52 per Among the traditional source markets, there has been recovery in the cases of Australia 9 per , Canada 8 per , Japan 7 per , and France 4 per , with modest growth 2 per in the U.
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In contrast, external tourism expenditures of the U. Note: data provisional. Regarding the outlook for the future, the UNWTO published a study forecasting and evaluating the evolution of tourism in the first twenty years of the new millennium.
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It foresaw, besides the natural expansion of tourism flows and receipts, a consolidation of the process of globalization, with a significant percentage of the growth being directed towards regions that currently have lower market shares, and thus leading to a better distribution of tourism flows worldwide. Notwithstanding the irregularity of tourism flows in recent years, the UNWTO for the moment maintains its long term forecast, considering that the structural trends underlying the forecast have not changed significantly.
Indeed, experience has shown that, in the short term, there alternate periods of strong growth , , , and — with periods of low growth —, , , and indeed, for the period as a whole, the UNWTO expectation is being borne out. For the total of tourist arrivals by region, in the top three receptor regions will be Europe million tourists , East Asia million , and the Americas million , followed by Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.
East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are expected to grow by more than 5 per per annum compared to a world average of 4. The more mature regions of Europe and the Americas are expected to have growth rates below the average. Europe will maintain its position as having the greatest share of arrivals, although it will decrease from 60 per in to 46 per in Globalization in tourism affects all aspects of demand, supply, and intermediation.
This is a radical change for which tourism managers need to be prepared, opening their minds to the move from local management of tourism to global management. There have been many reports on the recent trends that have affected the field of tourism. Most have focused on three main areas of analysis: changes in consumer behaviour in tourism, the influence of the technological revolution on the processes of production and consumption in the sector, and concern for the longer term effects of over-sizing tourism, especially for the pressure on the destination's natural capital.
In recent years there has also been a growing concern about the compatibility between tourism development and the resident population's quality of life Aguilar, ; Riera, ; Sharpley, A brief review of this literature follows.
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The current global economic crisis has shattered all earlier expectations about economic trends, and has made any analysis in the medium to long term particularly difficult. There does however seem to be a consensus among the most prestigious analysts and financial institutions that the crisis is shaping a different world, characterized by scarcity and by uncertainty about the future.
To the enormous difficulties of the global financial system, there have to be added for the main source markets of tourist flows the developed countries four other negative factors: unemployment, the relative impoverishment of the middle classes the real protagonists of what came to be called the "democratization of travel" , debt in the private sector, but also sovereign debt and budget deficits , and the squeeze applied to business and family credit.
This last has had the consequence of a growing fear that the difficulties may be here for the long stay, resulting in an overall reduction in consumption as an austerity measure in response to the uncertainty — a situation that the Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Zizek summed up as "purely and simply a way of life". The reality is that, while the U. And in any case, even if the crisis were definitively past, the last four years have revealed major weaknesses in the current model of growth the scarcity of raw materials including oil, the demographic challenge, climate change, migration, the abuse of power on the part of financial markets, the globalization of threats to security and world peace, the radical change in many of the values that have underpinned global coexistence since the end of World War II, etc.
It is still of course too early to see how good the results of these policies are going to be. Indeed, in the view of some experts they are too little to tackle the change that is really needed. Consequently, it is presently very difficult to guess what the economic motors of global change will be.
Whatever the case, the phenomenon of globalization, driven by the technological revolution, leads to increased freedom of movement of capital, goods, services, and, of course, people. For the travel industry, this means both greater mobility of global tourist flows and increased competition among international destinations Dwyer et al. Moreover, the stress that public finances have been subjected to during the crisis has led to stabilization policies that are already affecting, and will affect even more in the future, governments' capacity for intervention, since they find themselves forced to curtail public spending.
One must not forget that, until now, a significant portion of the investment in the development and management of tourism has come from the public sector, whether in terms of stimulating the development of the activity, the provision of public services, or the promotion of the destination.
Instead, governments are now beginning to see tourism as a sector to obtain financing from, rather than as an activity to invest in. Indeed, the justification given for the implementation of "green taxes" during in Germany, the U. It seems, however, merely to have been an effort to generate revenues, especially given that the receipts have no fixed destination, so that there is no guarantee that they will be spent on improvements in terms of sustainability  -.
The case is similar with the "tourism tax" recently implemented in Rome and already being considered by other cities including Venice and Barcelona, although in the case of Spain the possibility has been rejected by the nation's Congress of Deputies. The justification given for this is the need to sustain the city's efforts in the organization of urban services and hence guarantee that tourists will benefit from better reception and services.
The credit crunch is another of the current situation's dangers both for companies, since it slows down their investment projects, and for consumers, because it affects their capacity to consume. In the latter case, price has become a key factor in tourists' purchasing decisions. The purchasing process has become lengthier, since customers shop around more carefully, compare, ask other people's opinion, and wait until the last minute to book and pay in instalments or by credit card.
Experts agree that this trend is likely to be consolidated in the medium to long term, towards a more thoughtful consumer who seeks to maximize experiences, get the best service, and at the lowest price.
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And of course the Internet is playing a determining role throughout this process. In contrast, developing countries are increasingly relevant as sources of tourists and business travelers. According to a recent Goldman Sachs report, two thirds of global economic growth over the next five years will take place in Brazil, Russia, India, and China whose initials form the acronym BRIC.
This growth will result in an increase in the middle classes of those countries, and consequently in a rise in their tourism. Indeed, according to the latest figures published by the WTO, two of the BRIC countries already figure in the world's top 10 source markets for tourism spending. But the BRIC countries will not only have growing importance as sources of tourists, but also as receptor countries  -. In this context, one must also consider the emergence of a growing number of new destinations around the world. This is a consequence of the expectations for development that this activity generates, changes in the habits of tourists, the need for travel multinationals to diversify their business, the efforts of developing countries to remove barriers to the entry of travelers, improved transport, and easier access to the source markets, with the last two reasons being the result of the revolution in technology.
This increasing international competition will end in generating an ever more dynamic private sector. The pressure of this growing competition, together with firms' reduced access to financing, stricter environmental constraints, and changes in the traveler's purchasing behaviour and expectations will result in increased demand for the more efficient use of resources Dwyer et al.
Tourism is closely related to the environment, a limited asset which has to simultaneously provide ecological functions that are vital for the survival of ecosystems, and services that are essential to human activities. The natural environment provides the physical territorial context in which tourism is developed and a significant portion of the resources required to support the tourism production process of any destination basic resources such as water and power, and others that are available for tourism and recreational use , and receives much of the waste resulting from production and consumption Riera, Indeed, the natural environment and climate have always been considered two of the principal competitive advantages of any tourism destination or business.
Traditionally, the main concerns regarding the relationship between tourism and the environment have focused on the role that the development of tourism might be able to play to help improve the effectiveness of the management of ecologically sensitive areas and the preservation of unique environments both basically cases of protected areas. In recent years, however, interest has shifted to the analysis of the impact that tourism can have on the environment as a result of exorbitant increases in the use of resources.
These concerns include climate change, depletion of natural resources, and loss of biodiversity.
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Concern in the field of tourism about the effects of climate change and global warming has been very late in making itself felt Pulido, The foreseeable repercussions of climate change on tourism can be summarized in four main areas Pulido, : :. Repercussions on the geographic travel space: It is estimated that in all coastal zones, beach-front infrastructure will be at jeopardy, and freshwater reserves will be affected, further aggravating the already difficult water supply situation in these tourist areas.
Repercussions on demand: The climate is a central motivating factor in choosing a holiday destination. Tourists will try to avoid the places most affected by this phenomenon, replacing them with others or choosing other times of year for their visit. Repercussions on supply: Climate variability and changing weather patterns will generate higher levels of uncertainty than are considered normal for business activities.
In principle, the source market tour operators and travel agencies will simply respond by offering travel to other places. The most negative and direct impact will affect firms located in the most vulnerable destinations, with the resulting reduction in revenue for these locations, and consequent increase in unemployment. Repercussions on transport: Transport has a considerable effect on the environment and the climate. The measures so far proposed to mitigate this impact  - can be translated into different forms of increasing the cost of travel.
This will result in a retraction of tourism demand for certain zones. Indeed, there is already a clear awareness of the need for destinations to develop sustainable mobility plans, to boost tourism from neighbouring areas, and to introduce less polluting modes of transport.
But tourism is of course not just a victim of climate change — it is also a vector. If there are no radical changes, with an expected air traffic growth of 4. The second major concern is the depletion of natural resources and the loss of biodiversity Dwyer et al. The increasing population and growth rates worldwide are conditioning the availability of natural resources. Declining oil production with a dramatic increase in demand will translate into higher fuel costs, generating a growing concern for energy efficiency and greater investment in renewable energies.
At the same time, water scarcity will mean increased conflict for the control of water resources. Increased demand will lead to higher food prices, and hence large-scale land clearance in order to increase agricultural production. The result may well be over-cropping of current farmland and loss of original forests. Moreover, most studies recognize that habitat loss will be the main threat to species conservation and biodiversity.
The destinations that will most suffer from these effects will be those that specialize in nature-based tourism. Technological advances create opportunities for the travel industry, but they also pose a threat. Today's tourism is of course highly dependent on ICT and transportation.
The coming years will see the accession of the world of tourism to many technological innovations that will enhance the experience of travelers David Burton Associates, The main changes will be through the combination of mobile Internet and the Web's social networks, which should provide travel companies with new opportunities to improve their customers' experience. The futurologist Ray Kurzweil has predicted that, within ten years, computers will for the most part be invisible, embedded in walls, furniture, clothing, and even our bodies.
This new scenario will of course not only affect how travel is produced and consumed, but also how it is branded and marketed. Indeed, just this last decade has been prolific in the incorporation of technology into the processes of intermediation. ICTs also facilitate the incorporation of sophisticated database management systems, providing travel firms with the tools they need to respond to individual preferences and stimulate the tourist's purchases. A result is a reduction in operating costs and an increased capacity to add value for their customers.
Technological advances in transportation have made journeys faster and more comfortable.